New Seat Details - South Shields

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for South Shields been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	27,793	60.4%
CON	12,718	27.6%
UKIP	3,209	7.0%
Green	1,525	3.3%
LIB	785	1.7%
LAB Majority	15,075	32.8%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

South Shields: Map

List of old seats forming part of South Shields

Old seat: Jarrow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Jarrow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Jarrow				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Gateshead	Pelaw and Heworth	6,373	Jarrow	978	3,081	301	153	87	0	0	0	4,600
Gateshead	Wardley and Leam Lane	5,972	Jarrow	1,009	2,917	214	140	70	0	0	0	4,350
South Tyneside	Bede	5,956	Jarrow; South Shields	792	2,795	74	317	64	0	0	0	4,042
South Tyneside	Boldon Colliery	7,358	Jarrow	1,427	3,052	95	156	82	0	0	0	4,812
South Tyneside	Cleadon and East Boldon	6,954	South Shields	1,972	2,092	89	131	73	0	0	0	4,357
South Tyneside	Fellgate and Hedworth	5,835	Jarrow	856	2,672	78	314	59	0	0	0	3,979
South Tyneside	Hebburn North	6,930	Jarrow	931	3,150	88	161	88	0	0	0	4,418
South Tyneside	Hebburn South	6,234	Jarrow	921	2,592	74	310	70	0	0	0	3,967
South Tyneside	Monkton	6,307	Jarrow	996	2,709	87	325	74	0	0	0	4,191
South Tyneside	Primrose	6,293	Jarrow	875	2,960	63	332	79	0	0	0	4,309
	Total	64,212		10,757	28,020	1,163	2,339	746	0	0	0	43,025

The full details of these calculations are given on the Jarrow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: South Shields

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of South Shields, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: South Shields				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
South Tyneside	Beacon and Bents	6,735	South Shields	1,117	2,972	76	192	187	0	0	0	4,544
South Tyneside	Biddick and All Saints	6,429	South Shields	786	2,895	53	384	113	0	0	0	4,231
South Tyneside	Cleadon Park	5,695	South Shields	1,030	2,058	30	145	126	0	0	0	3,389
South Tyneside	Harton	6,775	South Shields	1,188	2,496	69	407	136	0	0	0	4,296
South Tyneside	Horsley Hill	7,114	South Shields	1,171	2,566	89	424	135	0	0	0	4,385
South Tyneside	Simonside and Rekendyke	6,324	South Shields	831	3,031	51	192	166	0	0	0	4,271
South Tyneside	West Park	6,205	South Shields	1,064	2,157	95	379	154	0	0	0	3,849
South Tyneside	Westoe	5,568	South Shields	1,207	2,164	107	363	161	0	0	0	4,002
South Tyneside	Whitburn and Marsden	5,781	South Shields	1,205	1,916	57	334	113	0	0	0	3,625
South Tyneside	Whiteleas	6,529	South Shields	971	2,825	53	188	147	0	0	0	4,184
	Total	63,155		10,570	25,080	680	3,008	1,438	0	0	0	40,776

The full details of these calculations are given on the South Shields seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: South Shields

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: South Shields
South Tyneside	Beacon and Bents	7,070	South Shields	1,117	2,972	76	192	187	0	0	0	4,544
South Tyneside	Bede	1,353	Jarrow	176	621	16	70	14	0	0	0	897
South Tyneside	Biddick and All Saints	6,583	South Shields	786	2,895	53	384	113	0	0	0	4,231
South Tyneside	Cleadon and East Boldon	6,565	Jarrow	1,972	2,092	89	131	73	0	0	0	4,357
South Tyneside	Cleadon Park	5,274	South Shields	1,030	2,058	30	145	126	0	0	0	3,389
South Tyneside	Harton	6,686	South Shields	1,188	2,496	69	407	136	0	0	0	4,296
South Tyneside	Horsley Hill	6,825	South Shields	1,171	2,566	89	424	135	0	0	0	4,385
South Tyneside	Simonside and Rekendyke	6,644	South Shields	831	3,031	51	192	166	0	0	0	4,271
South Tyneside	West Park	5,990	South Shields	1,064	2,157	95	379	154	0	0	0	3,849
South Tyneside	Westoe	6,227	South Shields	1,207	2,164	107	363	161	0	0	0	4,002
South Tyneside	Whitburn and Marsden	5,641	South Shields	1,205	1,916	57	334	113	0	0	0	3,625
South Tyneside	Whiteleas	6,510	South Shields	971	2,825	53	188	147	0	0	0	4,184
	Total	71,368		12,718	27,793	785	3,209	1,525	0	0	0	46,030

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of South Shields. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Emma Lewell-Buck (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	71,368
Turnout:	64.5%

South Shields: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

South Shields: Overview

Introduction